Track: Case Studies

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought a positive impact on increasing public awareness of health. This awareness can be seen from the increasing demand for health services and products. PT Otsuka Indonesia as one of the leading pharmaceuticals and medical product companies in Indonesia aims to provide innovative solutions for the healthcare market. However, PT Otsuka Indonesia faced challenging problems in its product demand forecasting method. PT Otsuka Indonesia uses the same forecasting method for all products, resulting in inaccurate and less reliable forecasts. This paper aims to improve the forecasts done by the company by comparing forecasting methods and analyzing which method is best to use in terms of predicting PT Otsuka Indonesia demand in the future. Actual Demand, Target, and Sales Product Data was collected from PT Otsuka Indonesia’s historical data from 2020-2021. Three different forecasting methods were compared, namely Weighted Moving Average, Double Weighted Moving Average, and Holt Linear Method. Three of them were analyzed by using MAD where each of the products in PT Otsuka Indonesia has its own best suited method.

Keywords
Production Planning, Forecasting, Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing and Holt Linear.