Track: COVID-19 Analytics Competition

Abstract

West Java noted, as of July 17, 2021, there were 508,814 people who were confirmed positive for COVID-19. On the same date, the number of active COVID-19 cases in West Java was 115,257. There is a significant increase in active COVID-19 cases in 2021 in West Java. In the period 5 June – 17 July 2021, there was an increase in the number of active cases by 95,532. In that period, active cases increased by 484%., Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) in West Java on July 17, 2021 was at 80.48%, this figure exceeded the WHO recommendation of 60%. This has an impact on the incidence of patient rejection at the COVID-19 referral hospital. Active cases speak of COVID-19 patients who require medical care. Therefore, predicting the number of active COVID-19 cases is a strategic thing to do. In this study, active cases were predicted using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The data used in this study was sourced from the COVID-19 Task Force. The data is the number of positive cases, recovered and died of COVID-19 sufferers in 34 provinces in Indonesia in the period 2 March 2020 - 17 July 2021. The results of the study found, from the results of the evaluation using data testing the number of active cases in the last 15 weeks, namely April 10 – July 17, 2021, the use of adam 0.1 provides relatively good accuracy compared to the use of other settings, namely with MAPE, RMSE and MAE values of 17.21%, 7092.25, and 5470. It is hoped that the results of this study can be useful for the government as a reference in conducting conditioning the hospital bed capacity to deal with active COVID-19 cases in West Java in the next two weeks, so that no COVID-19 patients are rejected by the hospital on the grounds that the hospital is full.