Track: Systems Dynamics

Abstract

The Paris Agreement involves 195 countries, including Indonesia, that have signed the agreement to commit to reducing the number of carbon emissions that cause climate change. Under the agreement, Indonesia has committed to reducing around 29% to 41% of total carbon emissions by 2030 by environmentally friendly transition technology. The Minister of Industry has targeted a total national production for electric motorcycles in 2030 of 2 million vehicles. As a government effort to achieve this target, the government issued some subsidies and incentives policy. The policy is contained in Presidential Regulation Number 55 of 2019 concerning the Acceleration of the Battery-Based Electric Motor Vehicle Program for Road Transportation which is the highest policy basis and has resulted in several policies from the technical ministries under it. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of subsidy and incentive policies through a market projection model for electric motorcycles. Market projections are carried out using dynamic system modeling by the technology transition by considering 4 factors (users, manufacturers, infrastructure, authorities) which are believed to affect the willingness to consider (WTC) of the user to buy electric motorbikes. The model refers to Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM) and uses Powersim Studio 10 simulation software. This study simulates 19 subsidy and incentive policies in Indonesia, including 11 subsidy and incentive policies for manufacturers, 6 for users, and 2 for infrastructure providers. The results of the simulation show that market projections are believed to influence consumer considerations in purchasing electric motorcycle vehicles in Indonesia.