Track: Production Planning and Control

Abstract

Geothermal energy is a renewable energy source because of the heat continuously produced inside of the earth, the use of geothermal resources are utilized primarily for the use of electric power generation. PT. Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) now manages 5 areas for extracting geothermal energy around the country. In carrying out energy extraction in those five areas, PT. Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) requires a fuel supply. Fuel receipts and fuel consumption that occur in those five areas at PT. Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) often occurs in situations where supply acceptance and consumption are different.  Therefore, a forecasting method is needed that is in accordance with the characteristics of the PT. Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) company data type in order to get the most accurate forecast results for supply planning in the next period. So, by analyzing the type of historical data of the company, we will do a forecast with 2 methods; single moving average and single exponential smoothing. By comparing the forecast results from both methods, it will be analyzed which method is more suitable and accurate for the type and trend of PT. Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) company data.

Keywords
Forecasting, Single Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing.