Track: Transportation
Abstract
A large number of vessels berth in the anchorage areas of the Istanbul Strait on a daily basis for various reasons including bunkering and supply, port operation, lay-up, waiting for Strait passage, and bad weather conditions. These anchorage areas are zoned based on vessel type by maritime authorities where precise considerations need to be made according to the variation in vessel type. In this study, we first present a temporal analysis of vessel type traffic between 2006 and 2013 using a new historical dataset. Next, we forecast vessel type traffic for the next three years using the statistical ARIMA model. Our results suggest an overall decrease of berthing vessels, yet a pronounced increase in LPG barges. This finding is rather significant as this type of vessel is more prone to accidents and any such accident would pose a great danger to the Strait, which in turn, implies an urgent need for revising current anchorage zoning practices.