Globally, there is a concerted effort towards climate change mitigation through the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). South Africa stands as the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter in Africa, contributing 1.2% of global emissions, with the power and transport sectors being the primary contributors. Recent energy generation statistics indicate that the country relies heavily on coal for baseload power, resulting in increased emissions. Furthermore, the ongoing manual load reduction in the country’s power sector, driven by rising demand, has led to lower penetration rates of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy sources (RES) compared to other nations. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of how the adoption of EVs can facilitate the decarbonization and modernization of South Africa's power grid. By upgrading the outdated generation infrastructure, the Energy Availability Factors (EAF) of generation plants can be improved, thereby enhancing generation capacity and power supply reliability. The study evaluates the adoption rates of EVs and RES while quantifying the GHG emissions that EVs could potentially mitigate. Key insights suggest that the impact of EVs on emissions reduction is minimal when they are charged using the existing power grid. However, their significant potential can be realized when renewable energy sources dominate the grid. Given the current RES penetration rates, EV adoption remains a long-term objective for the country. Notably, RES operational capacities increased by 54% from 4,054MW to 6,230MW between 2019 and 2022, leading to a 10.2% reduction in emissions. Additionally, RES-generated electricity is projected to reach approximately 76% by 2050, reducing carbon intensity to 139gkWh−1. Future work should include grid and environmental impact assessments on EV adoption to guide stakeholders in developing well-managed EV adoption strategies.

Keywords

Electric vehicles, new energy vehicles, charging infrastructure, V2G technology, decarbonization