In response to geopolitical threats, this work offers a system dynamics model for a robust omni-channel petrochemical supply chain. Petrochemical supply chains are susceptible due to their energy reliance, large geographic networks, high infrastructure costs, and vital role in succeeding sectors. Traditional static models fail to capture their complexity and dynamics. The study depicted variable relationships using a causal loop diagram with reinforcing and balancing feedback loops. It then builds a stock-and-flow simulation model from these relationships. Supply capacity, inventory, demand, pricing, service level, resilience, disruption intensity, and channel integration are key variables. The model is verified for structural, dimensional, and behavioral accuracy, then sensitivity analysed. Eight scenarios are simulated over 120 months. The geopolitical situation caused service levels to plummet, resulting in 66,000 tons of shortages and a resilience score of 0.42. Service levels rise to 97%, shortages drop to 9,000 tons, and resilience rises to 0.89, making resilience investment attractive. A sustainability scenario shows that environmental goals can be profitable. The findings imply that petrochemical companies' long-term competitiveness depends more on market adaptation than on cost reduction. This requires sourcing from multiple locations, implementing digital solutions, coordinating across multiple channels, maintaining strategic reserves, and making proactive investments to mitigate disruptions and recover quickly from significant shocks and uncertainties, while ensuring operational continuity during extended crises and fluctuating global market conditions now and in the future.

Keywords

System Dynamics, Petrochemical Supply Chain, Supply Chain Resilience, Geopolitical Disruptions, and Omni-Channel Supply