Indonesia’s electricity sector remains heavily dependent on coal, contributing around 35–40% of national greenhouse gas emissions despite abundant renewable energy potential. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) to project electricity demand, generation mix, carbon emissions, and capital investment needs in Indonesia until 2060, based on the 2025–2034 Electricity Supply Business Plan (Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik, RUPTL) as the baseline. The research addresses three questions: (1) the alignment of RUPTL 2025–2034 with the Net Zero Emission (NZE) 2060 target; (2) policy gaps that may hinder NZE achievement; and (3) alternative scenarios to accelerate the energy transition while ensuring reliability and affordability. Both baseline and optimized scenarios are analyzed, covering electricity consumption across household, commercial, and industrial sectors and the evolution of the generation mix. The study integrates emissions modeling with capital cost estimation to provide a comprehensive environmental and economic assessment. Results show that the baseline scenario supports gradual renewable energy integration; however, coal and natural gas remain dominant, resulting in continued emissions growth. Under the optimized scenario, total electricity generation is projected to increase from 275.7 thousand GWh in 2024 to 1,075.4 thousand GWh in 2060, dominated by renewable energy sources such as hydropower, solar PV, wind, biomass, and geothermal energy. Electricity sector emissions initially increase from 26.7 million metric tonnes CO₂ equivalent in 2024 to 39.7 million metric tonnes CO₂ equivalent in 2030, before declining gradually and reaching net zero emissions by 2060 through the complete phase-out of fossil fuel-based power plants. Achieving this transition requires cumulative capital investment of approximately USD 653.4 billion by 2060. This study contributes by evaluating Indonesia’s latest electricity planning, identifying structural and policy barriers to NZE 2060, and proposing pathways for faster decarbonization in coal-dependent developing countries. The integrated analysis offers practical guidance for designing financially feasible and sustainable strategies toward a fully decarbonized power sector.

Keywords

Energy modeling, LEAP, Renewable Energy, Energy system, Optimization.