Industrialization in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is central to economic diversification, but is also a major and growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Saudi Arabia alone accounted for around 535 Mt CO₂ of energy-related emissions in 2023, about 1.5% of global CO₂ from fuel combustion, with industry representing the largest share of domestic energy-related emissions [10,11]. Conventional decarbonization strategies focusing on low-carbon energy are necessary but insufficient: analyses by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation (EMF) indicate that even a fully decarbonized energy system would address only about 55% of global emissions, with the remaining 45% linked to how materials and food are produced and used [1]. EMF further estimates that circular strategies in cement, steel, aluminum, plastics and food systems could eliminate about 9.3 Gt CO₂ of production-related emissions globally by 2050 [1].

In this paper the researcher adapt EMF’s circular economy insights to the context of Saudi Arabia and the MENA region, developing an industrial systems engineering framework for circular manufacturing transitions. Using Saudi industrial emissions data—where industry accounts for roughly 230 Mt CO₂ (about 46% of national CO₂) [10]—and regional material and waste statistics (including very high per-capita polymer consumption, high municipal solid waste generation with low recycling rates, and food loss and waste around 28–33%) [6–9,12,13], intervention points mapped along key value chains (steel, cement, aluminum, plastics and food systems) and construct qualitative scenarios to 2050. Scaling EMF’s global circular mitigation potential in proportion to Saudi Arabia’s high industrial share of global emissions suggests that circular manufacturing strategies in these sectors could plausibly reduce Saudi production-related emissions by on the order of 140–190 Mt CO₂ per year by mid-century, in addition to energy-sector decarbonization. At the wider MENA scale, proportional scaling suggests a potential of 0.6 – 0.9 Gt CO₂ annually by 2050 [1,6–8,11]. The researcher discussed how these circular manufacturing pathways interact with national and regional strategies, including Saudi Vision 2030 and the Circular Carbon Economy framework, and outline a research agenda for country-specific modelling and just transition strategies in resource-rich, industrializing economies [3,7,14,15].