This study conducts a prospective analysis of Lima's electric automotive sector by 2030, aiming to evaluate CO2 reduction scenarios through increased electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Addressing limited EV penetration and rising urban pollution, the research employs a mixed-methods approach, utilizing MICMAC, MACTOR, and SMIC Prob-Expert, complemented by the Delphi method.

The study identified the General Sales Tax (IGV) and Public Knowledge on Climate Change (NivelCon) as "repeater" variables crucial to the system. Key actors, including the Ministry of Transport and Communications (MTC), the Government of Peru, and Importers, were also found to be "repeaters," highlighting their essential coordinated contribution. However, probabilistic scenarios project a high likelihood (38.9%) for an "inertial" future, where incentives are not implemented, nor is public awareness fostered. Conversely, the scenario where both hypotheses are achieved presents a lower probability (27.9%). These findings emphasize that political will, the resolution of conflicts of interest, and sustained public awareness efforts are critical for accelerating EV adoption and mitigating climate impact in Lima.