A company is like a system which is a unit of several interrelated entities in it. The system in a good company will help the company to achieve the goals to be achieved. This success can be obtained by implementing a good production system from upstream to downstream. One of the important processes is the procurement process. PT. ABC is a manufacturing company for plastic packaging products. Procurement management is one of the important activities in the supply chain. Consumable parts are materials that cannot be reused and are often used to support the production process. In its implementation, the procurement of consumable parts at PT. ABC is done on an irregular basis or changes as needed. It is not uncommon for the procurement of consumable parts to be submitted by the user to the purchasing department suddenly. This causes several risks that can occur, such as shortages of inventory for the relevant departments, difficulty for the purchasing department to get the spare parts requested quickly and with quality, then making the process of submitting the purchase of documents done too often. PT. ABC does not have a fixed amount of raw materials that must be ordered and when is the right time to place an order. Often requests for some consumable parts are made without a fixed time and quantity which requires the administrative process of purchasing applications to occur too often. Therefore, writing this research aims to assist companies in finding the factors that affect the uncertainty of demand in the procurement of consumable parts. Next, determine the stock that must be provided at the time of ordering which as long as it is still probabilistic and uncertain.