To achieve four goals of energy safety assurance, sustainable development, low-carbon environment and avoiding price volatility of fossil fuels, a new energy policy was announced by the government of Taiwan in November 2011. Also, the Government will actively fulfill the carbon reduction target and electricity stable supply policy under three major principles of reaching international carbon reduction commitments, no limitation of electricity usage and valid electricity price. Consequently, the Government encourages private enterprises to generate electric power of renewable energy and sell back to the public enterprise.
In order to support a private enterprise to evaluate the possible generation combination of the renewable energy under the consideration of intermittence of renewable energy, environmental protection and generation cost, given the monthly electricity demand, this study proposes 2-stage analytical model of which at the first stage, a multi-objective model is proposed to optimize the mix of the electricity from power company and the renewable energy generation in order to maximize the total energy generation of renewable energies, while minimizing carbon emission at a minimum cost; and at the second stage, a Markov chain model is developed to determine which combination of renewable energies is most likely to provide more power generations. By substituting the steady-state probability obtained from the second stage, the third goal of generation maximization under the stable power supply can be achieved.