Outbreaks of infectious diseases such as Ebola and Zika present a concerning threat to global health. Short-term coping strategies include symptomatic treatment, however, one ideal long term strategy entails the administration of vaccines that proactively prevent the spread of the disease.
The production of vaccines typically involves the cultivation of live organisms, hence the process variability complicates strict quality control procedures, resulting in lead times for the production and delivery of a new vaccine to the point of administration ranging between 6 - 12 months.
Such long lead times clearly demonstrate the need for an accurate estimation of what the demand for the vaccine will be at the expected delivery date in order to swiftly contain an outbreak.
The prerequisites to design and develop such a framework to aid in comprehending demand forecasting for newly introduced vaccines are discussed. As diseases spread at different rates, disease clustering according to transmission mechanism, disease specific characteristics and contextual factors affecting these complex dynamics are investigated. This research works towards a policy guiding framework to aid in determining the individuals that are most at risk, as it might not be feasible for an initial supply of such vaccines to cover an entire population.