Forest management and forest operations planning are complex topics requiring a holistic approach combining knowledge of the domain, optimization and simulation approaches, weather forecasting models, and state-of-the-art technology. Our research focuses on valuing biomass through more efficient management of its operations. Removing forest residues from piles is essential to mitigate fire risk. On the other hand, it is a way of valuing a by-product which can be used for heating, energy production, and even the production of biomaterials. There is significant variability in the availability of forest residues, biomass demand, and the productivity of operations, particularly in the forest-to-bioenergy supply chain. This work proposes a simulation framework to support the decision-making by combining plans generated by a resource allocation model with the analysis of a set of disruptive scenarios generated by discrete event simulation. The model addresses uncertainty in demand and variability in supply, resulting from fires. The obtained results provide essential managerial insights for the case study of a biomass supplier in the central region of Portugal and offer prescriptive recommendations to increase the efficiency and robustness of this chain in response to uncertainty. An extension of the methodology to other sectors appears, therefore, quite promising.

Reinaldo Gomes

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Mitigating Biomass Supply Chain Uncertainty through Discrete Event Simulation