The cellular tower industry faces growing financial challenges due to declining lease prices and rising capital expenditures (CAPEX), often leading to poor investment metrics such as Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Payback Period. Despite this, providers frequently proceed with projects based on qualitative justifications like urgency or future contract potential without quantifying key financial risks. This study introduces a quantitative framework using Value at Risk (VAR) and Monte Carlo simulation to assess project feasibility under uncertainty. Real-world data are used to model three primary risks: additional construction work, land lease extensions, and uncertain colocation revenue. The simulation shows that while individual risks can lead to unfeasible outcomes, long-term scenarios incorporating colocation and extended leases improve overall viability. The risk-adjusted metrics remain within feasible thresholds under most conditions. This approach provides a structured, data-driven tool for tower providers to improve investment decisions and manage financial risk.

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Mr. Azhar Rasyid Firdausi