Impact of Petroleum on National Debt as a Decomposed General Macroeconomic Theory Non Linear Stationary Markov Switch Process.

Chibwe Joseph D.B

Lecturer

School of Business Economics and Management

University Lusaka (UNILUS)

Lusaka, Zambia

chibwejdb@gmail.com; jchibwe@unilus.ac.zm

Dr. Lubinda Habazoka, Dr. Kasongo Mwale Richard

Graduate School of Business

University of Zambia

Lusaka, Zambia

lhabazoka@yahoo.com; engkasongo@gmail.com

Abstract

National debt has been identified as a major economic problem affecting the developing world in general where vital national resources are diverted from developmental functions to meeting debt obligations in interest and principal repayments. A multiplicity of literature portraying the causes of the debt build up have tended to bring out petroleum imports as one key contributor to third world indebtedness. The study reanalyzes this proposition by studying the relative impact of the Zambian petroleum imports on its national debt as a decomposed General Macroeconomic Theoretical process utilizing a time-varying two state multivariate Markov-Switching Autoregressive Model (MSAR) with Zambian National Debt as the dependent variable and Petroleum imports, Non-Petroleum imports, Government Expenditures, Gross capital formation, Exports, Private Final Consumption and GDP as the regressors, using annual time series data from the early 1980’s to 2019. The study established national debt reducing effects to have run from Petroleum imports, GDP, Gross capital formation and private consumption expenditures in both the dormant and expansive states of the model. Debt increasing effects were brought out to have run from Government expenditures and national exports in both states of the model. It was only from non-petroleum imports that results were inconclusive.

Keywords

National Debt, Petroleum Imports, GDP, Government Expenditures and National Exports.

Biographies

Chibwe Joseph D.B is a Lecturer in the School of Business Economics and Management University Lusaka (UNILUS)

He is a practicing researcher and a PHD Candidate in Economics.

Dr. Lubinda Habazoka is Director of the Graduate School of Business at the University of Zambia. He is also author and researcher with over 15 years of experience.

Dr. Kasongo Male Richard is Part time Lecturer in the Graduate Business School at the University of Zambia. He is a qualified Civil Engineer and Consultant as well as a researcher with over 5 years of experience.

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Dr. Richard Kasongo Mwale