Track: Mathematical Sciences

Abstract

The potential for natural disasters in Indonesia is very high, because it is located on the Pacific Ring of Fire (an area with a lot of tectonic activity) and the confluence of three large tectonic plates, namely the Indo-Australian plate, the Eurasian plate and the Pacific plate. Predicting potential cases of natural disasters in Indonesia needs to be done, this is an effort to prepare a natural disaster management budget by the government. Therefore, this study aims to predict potential cases of natural disasters in Indonesia. The data used are cases of natural disasters that occurred in Indonesia. The method used is the Poisson Process to analyze the probability of natural disasters that will occur. From the results of the research, the probability of occurrence is obtained by the number of cases of natural disasters that will occur. Based on the research results, it can be used as a basis for the government in preparing disaster management budgets.