Track: Energy

Abstract

Indonesia as a tropical country has a high potential for solar energy, but its utilization is lowest among other renewable energies. In order to maximize the use of solar energy, Indonesia is planning to have a large-scale solar power plant development program. The main challenge for the large-scale solar power plant in Indonesia is lack of available land which located near the high load electricity requirement.  One of the innovations being developed to address the problem of land availability is the allocation of large-scale floating solar power plant above the potential dams in Indonesia. The development of large-scale floating solar power plants has various advantages that attract power generation companies in Indonesia to conduct investment feasibility studies on dams in Indonesia using a financial model. In the preparation of the financial model, there are uncertainty factors that can affect the feasibility value of the floating photovoltaic project, this study aims to analyze the feasibility of large-scale solar plant investments by considering the uncertainty factor of energy output and cost requirement using the financial model and Monte Carlo simulation with four output indicator which are NPV, Project IRR, Equity IRR, and Discounted Payback Period. The acceptability of the investment indicator is being evaluated using Value at Risk approach at 95% confidence level. In this study, the special purpose vehicle and lender candidate could determine the debt and equity financing. Therefore, the uncertainty factor will be simulated with the implementation of three capital structure alternatives or debt to equity proportion with adjusted interest rate and loan repayment period. The results show that the use of capital investment scenarios has a significant effect on the results of the feasibility indicators and the uncertainty factors that have the greatest relationship to the uncertainty of the feasibility indicators are annual global horizontal irradiation and the price of photovoltaic modules.