Track: Systems Dynamics

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread to all corners of the world, including Indonesia. In this study, we will design a model for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in North Sumatra, to predict the number of patients, both ODP, PDP, positive, recovered or death and the capacity of hospitals to cope with the growing wave of COVID-19 victims. The preventive measures taken by the government in tackling this pandemic case are used as a scenario to see the extent to which these actions affect the number of patients and hospital capacity. This study uses a dynamic system method in designing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic using AnyLogic Software. Experimental simulations were carried out with 3 different scenarios based on the coefficient value of the preventive action taken by the government if it was increased or decreased by 10%. The results of the simulations and scenarios show that the government's preventive measures are very influential in increasing or decreasing the number of infected patients and hospital capacity. Prevention measures that are reduced by the coefficient value by 10% lead to an increase in the number of patients and a significant decrease in hospital capacity significantly.