Track: Quality Control and Management

Abstract

The current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become a global issue to its quick and widespread over the world, including in Indonesia. Among the large islands, as many as 61% of infected people come from Java. Based on it, the transmission modeling in this study focused on six provinces of Java island. We develop a discrete-time stochastic epidemic model, such as SIRD spatial model, associated with the mobility of people by public transportation (air and land). Model parameters are estimated based on fitting to newly reported data to November 14, 2020. At the beginning of the estimation process, we used the coefficient of regression from the observation to estimate the range of parameters. Afterward, the statistical process control method has carried out to determine the best parameters so we can forecast the number of infectious for each province. The SIRD model was created by entering the regression