Track: Operations Management and Operations Research
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to formulate and describe a forecasting method for products with a short life cycle. The logistic equation and the S-curve are the starting point for modeling the demand behavior of a product with this property, for example videogames or mobile phones and in general technologies based on electronics. The current market is more conducive to the variety, novelty and status quo of electronic devices, so supply chain management must respond flexibly and promptly, by modifying the conditions of supply planning, the production system and distribution logistics, provided that the forecasting method substantially reduces uncertainty, estimating the possible life-cycle duration and the maximum sales volume that can be described by a diffusion model.