6th North American International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management

Application of factorial analysis and multiple regression for the prediction of the stabilization time in furnaces in the heat treatment area in a metalworking company

Refugio Chávez, José-Luis Martínez-Flores & Carlos Leal
Publisher: IEOM Society International
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Track: Operations Management
Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the values and attributes of the loads in the forged rings in materials such as nickel, titanium and waspaloy in furnaces for their heat treatment in a metal industry, the effect on the preparation time, duration and stabilization of the temperature of the ovens, to be within parameters and be able to carry out the loads and start their holding time according to the recipe assigned for their heat treatment.

Applying the factorial analysis method, it is possible to identify a reduced number of significant factors that can represent the relationship of the independent variables set, as well as a multiple regression analysis that allows the establishment of a system for estimating or predicting the time it takes for the furnace to operate the preheating and to receive the programmed charge. 6,135 data of the full loads of the year 2018 and six months of the year 2019 were collected, the results had a total variance of 64.61%, a Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin index of 0.620 and a Bartlett sphericity test with a significance of 0.00. The study significantly identifies three important factors on the time of preparation of furnaces obtained from the factorial analysis, which are: the conditions between loads that represent 33.203% of the total variance, the temperature precision for the load 18.149% and the exposure of matter in ovens 13,263%. From the factors identified in the multiple regression analysis, it was obtained that the relevant variables are: the temperature difference with respect to the previous load, the weight of the load, the load of the holding time and the treatment temperature for its maintenance has a significant impact on setup time. The result of this research benefits programmers to formulate load sequencing more efficiently in the heat treatment area, allowing to increase the productivity and utilization of the furnaces.

Published in: 6th North American International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Monterrey, Mexico

Publisher: IEOM Society International
Date of Conference: November 3-5, 2021

ISBN: 978-1-7923-6130-2
ISSN/E-ISSN: 2169-8767