Abstract

This study evaluates the investment feasibility of Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) technology for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) in Bangka Belitung through the Value at Risk (VaR) method. It examines the economic viability of MSR-based NPPs and identifies critical risks affecting investment parameters. The analysis integrates primary and secondary data, employing a discounted cash flow financial model and Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 iterations at a 95% confidence level. The findings indicate that MSR NPPs are economically viable, with a project Net Present Value (NPV) of $338.7 million, an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 13.06%, a Profitability Index (PI) of 1.40, and a Discounted Payback Period (DPP) of 11.19 years. Key risks identified include extended construction timelines, public perception issues, fuel supply disruptions, policy changes, and thermal efficiency reductions. The VaR analysis using Monte Carlo simulations further highlights the potential for significant investment losses if these risks materialize, particularly impacting critical financial factors such as Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) and Overnight Construction Costs (OCC). This research provides valuable insights into advancing nuclear energy development in Indonesia, supporting the nation’s energy demand growth and resilience.