Track: Engineering Management

Abstract

In construction projects, risks play a significant part in decision making and may affect the performance of the project. Nevertheless, construction projects always face uncertainty that leads to cost and schedule risks.  Most of those risks can be mitigated with better up-front planning and analysis. The cost estimate should be consistent with the schedule in terms of resources assumed, their productivity and other factors. Poor cost and schedule estimates lead to cost and schedule over-runs, poor decisions, funding problems, and other risks. As a result, project cost risk and schedule uncertainty should always be addressed and each task’s most likely, optimistic and pessimistic cost and duration values should also be documented. 

In this study, the cost and schedule risks associated to design and implementation of twenty housing units for low income people in Tripoli, Libya were analyzed. The qualitative risk analysis process carried results in a prioritized list of forty-four risk events. The cost and schedule risks are integrated and analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation. Two scenarios, pre and post mitigations, were conducted. The results showed a risk reduction from 20% high, 25% medium and 55% low risk to 22% medium and 78% low with no high risks.