Track: Modeling and Simulation

Abstract

Rice is the staple food for the people of Kalimantan Selatan, Indonesia. The inability of the government to meet the needs of rice will lead to regional and national instability. Fortunately, the Government of Kalimantan Selatan has stated through statistical data that the production of rice in Kalimantan Selatan has surplus. Therefore, Kalimantan Selatan serve as one of the national food barn area. An interesting point is Kalimantan Selatan which has a wetlands as a majority of paddy field capable to achieve surplus production in rice, where the wetlands can only be planted with rice once a year. This study aims to provide an alternative policies to maintain a surplus in rice production through policy analysis approach based on system dynamics model. The resullt of the simulation that Kalimantan Selatan will capable to maintain their rice production in surplus condition if the Government can push the paddy field conversion and endorse the production insentives for the farmers. In 2027, Kalimantan Selatan potentially has a surplus 1 million tons per year for rice.

Keywords

Rice, System dynamics, Policy Analysis, Simulation