Abstract

This research paper unveils PERT 3.0, an innovative analytical framework designed to address the prevailing ambiguities associated with the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in project risk simulation leveraging expert judgments. By conducting a comprehensive historical analysis, we trace the evolution of PERT from its inception as a second moment analytical tool (PERT 1.0) to its development into a hybrid probability distribution within the beta distribution family (PERT 2.0), emphasizing three-point subjective uncertainty assessments. PERT 3.0 emerges as a refined, ambiguity-free solution, clarifying misunderstandings surrounding PERT 2.0's perceived uniformity. This advancement not only sheds light on the misinterpretations but also significantly enhances the theoretical and practical applications of PERT in project risk management, offering a more precise and reliable tool for expert-driven risk assessment.