5th South American Industrial Engineering and Operations Management Conference

Time Series Electricity Consumption Forecast in the Philippines using Multivariate PROPHET

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Abstract

Energy consumption has been the driving factor of civilization. Particularly, electrical energy fuels the world of the digital age. At this age, developing nations have been struggling to sustain sufficient energy sources to produce electrical power and some were facing imminent scarcity. In the Philippines, the Malampaya power plant - one of the major energy source providers - was expected to deplete. Forecasting electricity consumption can provide insights that can be used to aid the country in constructing plans and development to secure sufficient power supply. Using the multivariate Prophet model, it was forecasted that the total electricity consumption will climb to 152,781.53 GWh. Furthermore, residential, commercial, industrial and loss electricity were also expected to escalate to 55,445.46 GWh, 22,835.22 GWh, 37,130.67 GWh, and 11,126.29 GWh respectively, by the end of 2031.

Published in: 5th South American Industrial Engineering and Operations Management Conference, Bogota, Colombia

Publisher: IEOM Society International
Date of Conference: May 7-9, 2024

ISBN: 979-8-3507-1735-8
ISSN/E-ISSN: 2169-8767