Track: Case Studies

Abstract

This research work is a strategic prospective that seeks to analyze, understand and establish planning guidelines for
the Peruvian textile and apparel sector within five years. Its main objective is: "To predict the characteristics and
determine the situation of the Peruvian textile sector in five years". Under a mixed approach, both qualitative and
quantitative, it answers the question: Which strategic scenario has a more probable occurrence for the Peruvian
textile and apparel sector at the national level? Michael Godet was used as a reference for the approach of the work.
It was divided into three phases: the initial phase in which the variables and actors that characterize the sector were
identified. The classification phase of variables and actors by means of the Cross Impacts Multiplication Matrix
Applied to a Classification (MICMAC) and interviews with sector referents. And the final phase, where possible
future scenarios were generated and validated using the SMIC method. This research resulted in six key variables
and one key actor, which were analyzed and used for the development of predictive hypotheses that were formulated
by a committee of experts. These hypotheses were subjected to the SMIC software, resulting in simple probabilities,
conditional probabilities of realization and conditional probabilities of non-realization.