Track: Modeling and Simulation

Abstract

Energy plays a crucial role in developing a country and defining its’ living standards though many still use non-renewable energy with high greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, there needs to be a change to new and renewable energy usage. In Indonesia, hydropower has huge potential as new and renewable energy. The government's support also follows in realizing potential. However, risks and uncertainties are involved when investing in new and renewable energy projects, particularly hydropower plants. Therefore, it’s crucial to calculate the value of a project while considering the risks involved in the valuation model. The Value at Risk approach using Discounted Cash Flow and Monte Carlo Simulation is viable for calculating the value while accounting for risk. This study aims to discover the value of a mini hydropower plant facility while accounting for risks and uncertainties by discovering the Value at Risk with a 95% confidence level tested through two different scenarios. The results show that the value decreases when faced with risks at a determined confidence level. It also shows the most significant risk affecting the valuation is the water flow rate in the facility's production. Additionally, the significance of the risk and uncertainty factors can increase through different scenarios.