Track: Systems Dynamics

Abstract

Peru has become one of the world's leading producers and exporters of organic coffee, so it is necessary to understand sustainable supply chain initiatives, which involve the 3 axes that encompass it (economic, social, and environmental). In this sense, the importance of risk factors within a supply chain to establish sustainable objectives is recognized. This research seeks to analyze and understand these factors and how they could impact the integration of sustainable development. For this, the methodology for modeling was System Dynamics. The results of the research showed the importance of understanding these factors that impact a coffee supply chain, so that with this information the sustainable conditions of production can be improved, since this is the most important factor in a coffee company. In this sense, two scenarios of the possible variability of demand were also presented, at a linear and exponential level, based on the analysis of historical data. When evaluating the scenarios, the linear variation was the best, since it was coupled in a constant and not abrupt manner to the change of carrying out a sustainable management in a coffee logistic chain.